A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
